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Two Senate Races We Should Be Talking About
Written by Tanner Drant
Edited by Francesca Howard and Annika Lilja
With just under a month until the midterms, the Senate map is beginning to take shape. At the start of this election cycle, regaining control of the Senate seemed like a long shot for Democrats; however, Trump’s low approval ratings and strong Democratic candidates nationwide have put the Senate back in play. The party has begun to gain traction in historically GOP strongholds, as races in Texas, Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa—all of which the President carried by double digits in 2024—are now considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report.
At the same time, Republican spending in key Senate races has kept the MAGA base confident it can keep control of the upper chamber. For example, New Hampshire, which Kamala Harris carried by 3% in 2024, is now considered a toss-up Senate race by the Cook Political Report, as Republican PACs supporting GOP nominee John Sununu have significantly outraised Democratic nominee Chris Pappas.
The Cook Political Report classifies nine races as toss-ups or leaning in either party’s direction (seven toss-ups and two lean Democrat). Of those nine, Democrats would have to win seven to regain control of the Senate. Yet recent polls and trends suggest two more races could become competitive and transform the Senate landscape.
South Carolina
The Senate race in South Carolina has already gained plenty of media attention. But not because media outlets think it will be competitive.
After Republican Senator Lindsey Graham died in July, Governor Henry McMaster nominated Graham’s younger sister, Darlene Graham, to finish his term. Graham came into office with little political experience and public exposure, as her resume has been headlined by a short stint leading South Carolina’s Commission for the Blind. Despite her lack of experience, Graham subsequently began her campaign for election to a full, six-year term in her late brother’s seat with the endorsement of President Trump.
In the special Republican primary that followed, Graham earned the highest share of votes but could not reach the 50% cutoff to avoid a runoff, pitting her against Congressman Ralph Norman. With President Trump campaigning on her behalf, Graham fended off Norman by just under 5%. Still, it came at the expense of negative media attention and division in South Carolina’s GOP base.
In a pre-runoff debate with Norman, Graham showed her glaring political inexperience when asked a routine question about Taiwan’s importance to U.S. trade interests. In her response, Graham failed to answer the question, acknowledging that she’s “not that informed on national security.” In contrast, Norman answered the question with ease, highlighting Taiwan’s importance as a trade partner to the U.S.
The flub caused a stir within the Norman base, as the congressman posted that “South Carolina deserves a politician who UNDERSTANDS foreign policy.” Still, after conceding the primary runoff, Norman endorsed Graham’s general election campaign against Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews.
Andrews, a pediatrician who ran unsuccessfully for South Carolina’s first congressional district in 2022, sees Darlene Graham’s political inexperience as a sign this seat could flip from red to blue. From a policy standpoint, Andrews has leaned into her medical experience, building her campaign around expanding healthcare for South Carolinians while also promising to fight to create an economy that helps working people.
If Andrews is going to win, she will also have to leverage her opponent’s struggles to win over voters of color. African Americans make up 26% of South Carolina’s electorate while Latinos come in at 7.5%. In exit polling after the 2020 South Carolina Senate Race, only 6% of African American voters said they chose Lindsey Graham, who still won by more than ten percentage points. Before his death, Graham made no clear inroads with South Carolina’s African American population, and Darlene Graham has struggled to do so as well.
To make matters worse, Darlene Graham has continually alienated the state’s Latino population, including calls to deport all illegal aliens “immediately,” even though South Carolina’s immigrant population pays $3.5 billion in state taxes each year and makes up just under 8% of its labor force.
The Cook Political Report rates this race as “Solid Republican,” largely because South Carolina hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1998 and Trump won the state by 18%.
Independent polling on the race has been scant, but a recent InsiderAdvantage poll puts Darlene Graham at 45% and Annie Andrews at 43%. Thus, future polling will be a key indicator of whether Annie Andrews can leverage a preferable national political climate for Democrats, as well as Graham’s inexperience, to deliver a shocking win for the Democratic Party.
Minnesota
This cycle’s Senate race in Minnesota pits progressive Lietenant Governor Peggy Flanagan against GOP nominee and former television reporter Michele Tafoya. Similar to New Hampshire, on paper, this seat looks like it should be easy for Democrats to hold, as Harris won the state by 4% in 2024 and Trump has a -25 statewide approval rating, according to a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll. However, recent polling suggests that this might not be the case.
The last two independent polls, conducted by SurveyUSA and co/efficient, have yielded a tie and a Flanagan lead by one percentage point, respectively. In the co/efficient poll, Tafoya's approval rating eclipsed Flanagan’s by 3%.
Tafoya’s success thus far has rested on her public exposure from being an NFL reporter and her ability to keep a safe distance from President Trump. After working as an NBC Sunday Night Football sideline reporter from 2011 to 2022, Tafoya joined Minnesota’s political landscape as a conservative commentator. Tafoya’s resume gives her both name recognition and anti-establishment support at a time when establishment candidates are becoming increasingly unpopular across the country. Meanwhile, she’s been campaigning without President Trump’s endorsement and, although she supported Trump’s unpopular immigration crackdown in Minnesota last winter, she has long called herself pro-choice.
Flanagan could also benefit from distancing herself from the state’s Democratic establishment. After a widespread fraud scandal against Minnesota’s social services programs in December 2025—in which a predominantly Somali group allegedly defrauded Minnesota’s government out of billions of taxpayer dollars—the Democratic establishment has begun to lose favor among the Minnesota electorate. Shortly after the scandal became public, Democratic Governor Tim Walz announced he would not run for reelection, signaling the scandal’s major political ramifications. Walz, who was so popular two years ago that he was named Kamala Harris’ Vice Presidential nominee, has had his statewide approval rating fall to -14, according to SurveyUSA.
Flanagan’s anti-establishment pitch helped her win the Democratic primary in a resounding victory over moderate congresswoman Angie Craig, earning 59% of the vote. Her calls for a higher federal minimum wage and universal healthcare resonated with Democratic primary voters, but it is yet to be seen whether support for those policies will carry into the general election with a more moderate electorate.
Tafoya and Flanagan have been neck and neck in individual fundraising throughout the cycle, but the GOP’s midterm war chest remains a variable. If the party’s PACs decide to invest heavily in Tafoya’s campaign, as they have for John Sununu in New Hampshire, it could give Tafoya a real shot to flip the seat—which would inflict a critical blow to the Democrats’ push to achieve a slim Senate majority in November.
Ultimately, past election results suggest that the Senate seats in South Carolina and Minnesota won’t flip, which is why they aren’t being viewed as competitive races. Nevertheless, polls are starting to indicate that the nuances of each race—whether it’s South Carolina’s hectic primary process or Minnesota’s social services scandal—might very well turn the tide and deliver shocking results on Election Day.
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