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Michigan Senate Race Will Test the Direction of the Democratic Party
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
Written by Tanner Drant
Edited by Francesca Howard
Note: Since this article was written, State Senator Mallory McMorrow dropped out of the primary race.
As we get closer to the midterm elections this November, Democrats continue to debate the best direction for the party. After upset wins across the country in Democratic primaries, the Democratic Socialists of America have begun to gain momentum within the party. Meanwhile, other Democrats are preaching a move toward a centrist ideology to enhance the electability of the party’s candidates in general elections.Â
So, what’s the best direction for the party as it approaches the midterms and the 2028 Presidential election?
Well, it’s complicated. So, here is some context.
Ever since Zorhan Mamdani won the election for Mayor of New York City last year, Democratic Socialists—and left-wing politicians more generally—have gained traction. In this year alone, over 35 Democratic Socialist candidates have won their respective Democratic primaries in federal and local elections. This rise has been highlighted by the Democratic House primaries that occurred in the last few weeks. First, the three candidates whom Mamdani endorsed in New York City House races—Claire Valdez, Darializa Avila Chevalier, and Brad Lander—won their respective Democratic primaries, two of which ousted establishment Democratic incumbents. Then, Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros beat fifteen-term incumbent Diana DeGette in Colorado’s First District (which represents the Denver area).
Despite the success of Democratic Socialists in this cycle’s primaries, there still has not been a case where a Democratic Socialist has been nominated for a major statewide position in a swing state. That brings us to Michigan. Last year, Democratic two-term incumbent Senator Gary Peters announced that he would not seek re-election in a state that Donald Trump carried in the 2024 Presidential election. Since then, three major candidates have solidified themselves as the front-runners to win the Democratic Senate nomination in the August 4 primary.
Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, 41, while not a Democratic Socialist, is running the most progressive campaign of the Democratic front-runners. The former Wayne County Health Director has campaigned on obtaining Medicare for All and ending all U.S. weapon transfers to Israel. El-Sayed’s stances have earned him endorsements from Progressive policymakers Bernie Sanders (VT) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY).Â
Congresswoman Haley Stevens, 43, has presented herself as a moderate counterpart to El-Sayed. Stevens, who has been endorsed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (NY) among other established Democratic policymakers, has been unwavering in her support for Israel and, unlike El-Sayed, wants ICE to be controlled rather than abolished altogether.Â
State Senator Mallory McMorrow, 39, is attempting to split the difference between the two aforementioned candidates’ political ideologies. With the endorsements of liberal Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy, McMorrow has presented herself as an anti-establishment candidate with an agenda focused on reform. Her policies reflect a middle path, as, like Stevens, McMorrow has emphasized her support for Israel, even though she has refrained from taking money from corporate PACs along with El-Sayed.
In recent polls, El-Sayed has led Stevens by anywhere from 2-19%. Meanwhile, McMorrow has consistently come in third place, without gaining 20% of the prospective vote in any poll since April. This has led incumbent Senator Gary Peters to call on McMorrow to drop out, with the goal of boosting Stevens’ following. McMorrow, however, has refused to suspend her campaign.
The winner of the Democratic primary is likely to face Republican Mike Rogers in November’s general election. Rogers also ran for Senate in 2024, when he lost to Elissa Slotkin by under 20,000 votes. In the most recent general election polls, Quantas Insights has both Stevens and El-Sayed ahead of Rogers by one percentage point, showing that the former GOP representative is still neck-and-neck with his Democratic counterparts.
What makes this race such an important test for the future of the Democratic Party is the way the Michigan electorate represents the American electorate as a whole—both racially and politically. Unlike New York’s extremely racially diverse congressional districts that had primaries a few weeks ago, Michigan’s racial demographics precisely mirror those of the U.S. According to the 2020 Census, White people make up 72.4% of Michigan’s population, and 72.3% of the U.S. population. Similarly, Black people make up 13.5% of both Michigan and the United States’ overall population.
Politically, Michigan, like the U.S., is pretty evenly split along party lines. Michigan has been a swing state in each of the last three elections: voting for Trump in 2016, before switching over to Biden in 2020, and back to Trump in 2024. Given that the candidate that Michigan elected has won each of the last three elections, it is easy to see how its electorate’s political views ebb and flow with the American people as a whole.
Given Michigan’s balanced electorate, many Democrats will look for the candidate that they think will be most electable in a general election. While conventional wisdom tells us that the moderate candidate, in this case Stevens, is more electable given their ability to bring independent or undecided voters to their party base, some Democrats think otherwise. Supporters of El-Sayed say that Stevens’ support of Israel is out of step with the current views of the Democratic party and that her nomination could lead Democrats to lose support from left-wingers, making El-Sayed more electable in a general election.
One of these two competing philosophies on electability will likely be tested if Stevens or El-Sayed win the Democratic Primary. Whoever makes it to the general election will have a chance to show that their political ideology resonates with an electorate representative of the American people. Especially in the case of El-Sayed, a general election win could show the country that left-wing populist politics can win general elections outside of the liberal strongholds of NYC and Denver and need to be taken seriously at a national level. However, an El-Sayed loss in the general election would confirm traditional Democrats’ beliefs that moderate candidates perform best in tight general elections. Whatever the result of the race is, the Democratic candidate’s success in the general election, or lack thereof, will likely inform the party’s decision about what kind of candidate to back in the lead-up to the 2028 Presidential election.
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