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How Both Parties are Mismanaging the California Governor’s Primary
- Apr 23
- 5 min read
Written by Tanner Drant
Edited by Logan Dorton, Francesca Howard, Annika Lilja
Although the California governor’s primary is over a month away, the race has already gained national recognition. On April 6th, President Donald Trump endorsed Republican candidate Steve Hilton, going against the wishes of the many California Republicans who believed it was in their party’s best interest for the President not to endorse a specific candidate. Then, less than two weeks later, four women accused leading Democratic candidate Eric Swalwell of sexual misconduct, causing him to drop out of the race and resign from his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the following days. These two occurrences set the stage for an uncertain lead-up to the June 2nd primary for both parties. Meanwhile, the result of the race holds national implications, as the election of a Republican candidate could lead to Democrats eventually losing the House seats they are likely to gain due to last year’s gerrymandering campaign.
In 2011, after its citizens voted to pass Proposition 14, California adopted an open primary system, in which all candidates are pooled in a single primary, with the two who receive the most votes advancing to the general election. This primary system has been used in all statewide elections since, while presidential primaries have followed the traditional format, in which the Democratic and Republican parties each hold their own primary. California adopted this policy to appeal to its unique electorate, nearly 30% of which is not affiliated with a party, allowing all registered voters, regardless of party affiliation, to vote in primaries. Still, since the inception of this system, no Republican candidate has been elected Governor. This is in large part because 45% of California voters are registered Democrats, compared to just 25% registered Republicans. Despite this discrepancy, however, recent polling trends have left California Republicans confident that they can elect the first Republican Governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006.
Currently, there are eight candidates in the California primary––two Republicans and six Democrats. Given the large pool of Democrats, no individual candidate has galvanized the party’s support. Thus, despite California’s aforementioned left-leaning electorate, Republican candidates Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are at or near the top of many polls. In an Emerson College poll conducted on April 14-15, Hilton led the field with 17% of the vote, while Bianco and Democratic candidate Tom Steyer followed with 14%. The remaining five Democratic candidates accounted for much of the rest of the vote, while 23% of the people polled said they didn’t know whom they would vote for. The following poll displays a nightmare scenario for California Democrats, in which both Republicans could earn a spot in the general election and lock out the Democratic Party. Despite this possibility, notable California Democrats, including incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom, who has reached his term limit and cannot run in this year’s election, as well as Nancy Pelosi and Kamala Harris, have yet to endorse a single candidate. Instead, Newsom has called on Democratic candidates who are not polling well to drop out of the race.
Some Democratic leaders had begun to galvanize support around Representative Eric Swalwell before his campaign came crashing down earlier this month due to sexual misconduct allegations. Swalwell had gained popularity within California’s Democratic establishment in large part due to his reputation as a politician unafraid to stand up to President Trump during repeated public and televised appearances while in the House. However, Swalwell’s support system was not strong enough to survive the allegations, as political advisers quickly quit and campaign committees froze spending, signaling that his campaign was no longer viable. Prior to the disclosure of his sexual misconduct, Swalwell had a reputation among female staffers on Capitol Hill of repeatedly pursuing subordinate employees and treating them unprofessionally. Despite claiming to be unaware of his misconduct, Nancy Pelosi did not endorse Swalwell even though she was one of his closest political allies. Moreover, Pelosi signaled to other politicians, such as Rep. Jamie Raskin, that they should not publicly endorse Swalwell either, suggesting she had information prompting second thoughts about Swalwell’s candidacy. Whether or not Pelosi and other Democrats knew about Swalwell’s appalling actions, they made the mistake of allowing him to gain support in a critical gubernatorial race despite the possibility of his actions going public.
On the other side of the aisle, California Republicans have lamented Trump’s decision to endorse Steve Hilton, as it severely reduces the party’s chances of getting two candidates into the general election. Many California Republicans feel that locking the Democratic Party out of the general election is the clearest path toward the election of a Republican governor, given that a Republican candidate hasn’t beaten a Democrat in the general election in 20 years. Trump’s endorsement of Hilton could also spare the Democratic Party the need to invest in unifying Republican support around a single candidate to ensure a Democrat’s participation in the general election. For Hilton, although he welcomed Trump’s endorsement, it undermined his ability to avoid nationalizing the election, which he feels will favor Democratic candidates by taking the emphasis off California’s central issues.
Although Hilton and Bianco are both pro-Trump conservative Republicans, they come from very different backgrounds. Hilton, who was born in London, has served as a conservative commentator for Fox News and as an advisor to former British Prime Minister David Cameron. His campaign stresses a need to reduce taxes for California residents and relax the state’s business regulations. Bianco, on the other hand, is a sheriff in Riverside County whose campaign focuses on restoring the California dream by prioritizing public safety and economic growth.
After Swalwell’s departure from the race, former Congresswoman Katie Porter and billionaire hedge-fund manager Tom Steyer look like the most likely Democrats to advance to the general election, while former California Attorney General Xavier Becerra may enter that category soon due to rising poll numbers. No matter who they choose, California Democrats, most notably Newsom and Pelosi, need to quickly reach a consensus on who to endorse. Given that California is made up of predominantly Democratic voters, it should not be difficult to get at least one Democrat into the general election once the party is unified around a single candidate. If they can achieve this, the Democratic Party will be in a good spot to retain California’s governorship in the general election, as evidenced by past California gubernatorial election results. However, each day the Democratic Party lets pass without unifying behind a single candidate is another step toward the Party still being divided when the primary comes around, opening the door for the Republican Party to take both general election spots.
On the Republican side of things, the path toward correcting Trump’s endorsement will be much more difficult. According to the Emerson College poll, Bianco is still maintaining a good amount of support despite Trump’s decision to endorse Hilton. Still, California Republicans need to rally their support behind Bianco through endorsements and funding to balance the support that Hilton got from Trump. In doing so, they might be able to avoid squandering a rare chance at taking over the reins of an important and traditionally Democratic state in a time of intense political polarization.
It is ironic that the key to one party’s success is unifying its base while the other needs to keep its followers divided, especially considering that both have done exactly the opposite in the last month. However, given today’s polarized political climate, it should not come as a surprise that both parties will need to game the primary system in order to give themselves the best chance of securing a gubernatorial nominee. Ultimately, whichever party is able to turn the tide first will go a long way in deciding who will be elected Governor this November, while also greatly impacting President Trump’s last two years in office.
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